Star Wars Pre-sales and Early Box Office Prediction

Good googly moogly Star Wars: The Force Awakens is already breaking all sort of records and the movie is not even out yet. There will surely be more records that it breaks once it actually has the opportunity to profit.

Star Wars: The Force AwakensStar Wars has shattered the record for single day pre-sale tickets 8 times over which was previously held by The Hunger Games. That is a big number. What is even more interesting is that Star Wars has made more in pre-sales within the last two days than many shows do their entire opening weekend. Star Wars is already pulling that in.that much money with nearly two months to build up pre-order on top of any ticket sales that may still be available to purchase come opening weekend. Though, I’ll have to admit if you’re waiting until opening weekend to try to grab a ticket will be difficult considering the sales level. When Catching Fire released with massive Pre-sales I saw dozens of people turned away from the theatre for the entire weekend because they tried to buy tickets day of. While the number of theatres can increase for Star Wars, there will need to be a breaking point.

I know with my experience simply trying to buy tickets it was damn near impossible. The Alamo Drafthouse site I usually purchase tickets from had completely crashed. Refreshing did nothing but bring up hope of seeing the website only for them to crash down as the servers couldn’t handle the flood. We had to resort to getting our tickets the old fashioned way. We bought the tickets directly from the theatre. Despite the tickets having been on sale for almost a half an hour because of the crashing website, we got seats for the preview night.

The real question is how big will the Star Wars opening weekend be. How badly will it shatter box office records?

Currently predictions have it at roughly $170-180 million. Some people think that it will be much higher. Regardless of the domestic pull, Star Wars is believed to bring in $650m worldwide. That is a gigantic haul no matter how you look at it. All of that said, I don’t quite think that this movie is going to do quite as largely as some people think. However at the same time I think it may do more.

I’m not just being flip-floppy here’s why.

Star Wars: The Force AwakensNo matter what this movie will make it’s money back from the sheer number of fans who will rush out to see the movie, no questions asked. It will happen. That is going to be a lot of butts in seats. However, this is a vocal group. These are people who are not afraid to scream from the mountain tops that they are buying in to the kool-aid. The problem is that doesn’t give us an accurate account of how many people will see this movie and how many times. There will be a lot of people seeing this, but how much of the population is truly all in on this endeavor.

Part of the gross is going to be largely dependant on the quality of the movie. If this movie is not good, it will still be the largest December opening ever. Those who were going to see it anyway will see it. Those who were on the fence may not. Hearing that a movie is not good deters audiences. Word of mouth is a huge factor. It is a large part of the reason that both The Avengers and Jurassic World did so well. They had an established fanbase (which Star Wars has been fostering longer than either of these), a curiosity factor (which Stars Wars has had since JJ started trickling out information), and good word of mouth. If this movie is even just okay, then there will be so many people who step into theatres just to see all the hype. If the movie manages to be fantastic, then you are compounding hype, hope, and nostalgia into what could be box office gold.

I’m no analyst, but I am thinking that the box office will hit $204m domestically. Obviously this prediction is almost 2 months out, but based on what I’m seeing right now that’s my guess. As long as this movie is good, I suspect that it will have a very healthy tail end that may go forward to smash more records.

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